Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-29 11.203416 13.117442 15.207372 17.651954 20.425733 23.467919 27.049391
2025-01-05 8.190053 10.783749 13.899098 17.884151 22.810424 28.662519 36.098441
2025-01-12 6.207819 9.056454 12.769920 17.888690 24.673104 33.259348 44.834438
2025-01-19 4.887984 7.811877 11.906757 17.923921 26.377668 37.646354 53.578632
2025-01-26 4.306735 7.431330 12.075352 19.263504 29.843201 44.531934 66.079289
2025-02-02 3.741304 6.938129 11.959256 20.108793 32.615481 50.617916 77.892758
2025-02-09 3.280407 6.507872 11.842788 20.883989 35.289632 56.700010 90.070389
2025-02-16 2.764539 5.874612 11.286914 20.861131 36.686966 60.948375 99.803835
2025-02-23 2.263265 5.161308 10.475129 20.287126 37.105095 63.679351 107.372259
2025-03-02 1.827926 4.479507 9.603927 19.477324 37.012051 65.542272 113.649086
2025-03-09 1.559303 4.078689 9.182410 19.392256 38.094776 69.304563 123.078849
2025-03-16 1.311160 3.666670 8.671608 19.066945 38.701211 72.287746 131.385619
2025-03-23 1.204855 3.566560 8.790279 19.984114 41.665980 79.512775 147.250813
2025-03-30 1.061480 3.345912 8.625464 20.327150 43.612158 85.139641 160.813720
2025-04-06 0.915756 3.083715 8.327974 20.361142 44.971123 89.822483 173.039391
2025-04-13 0.792762 2.850651 8.056699 20.410370 46.349658 94.609234 185.690491
2025-04-20 0.768549 2.893903 8.440602 21.910361 50.705569 105.033103 208.753242
2025-04-27 0.714907 2.836249 8.569470 22.855164 54.007091 113.692047 229.085420
2025-05-04 0.662091 2.767994 8.660656 23.720405 57.203710 122.321502 249.762987
2025-05-11 0.576640 2.569251 8.382716 23.695062 58.529282 127.473611 264.340269
2025-05-18 0.480250 2.301906 7.874024 23.054783 58.479061 129.960056 274.095918
2025-05-25 0.390677 2.026737 7.290435 22.150943 57.761263 131.072727 281.299181
2025-06-01 0.338388 1.877167 7.041299 22.055967 58.826322 135.769603 295.504699